High Probability Order Blocks

Order blocks are regions of strong institutional interest, often marked by large imbalances between buying and selling. This script identifies those areas using z-score thresholds on directional distance (up or down candles), detecting statistically significant moves that signal potential smart money footprints. A bullish block is drawn when a strong up-move (zUp > 4) follows a down candle, and vice versa for bearish blocks. Over time, each block is evaluated: if price “mitigates” it (i.e., closes cleanly past the opposite side and confirmed with a 1 bar delay), it’s considered resolved and logged. These resolved blocks then inform a Kaplan-Meier-like survival curve, estimating the likelihood that future blocks of a given age will remain unbroken. The indicator then draws a probability curve for each side (bull/bear), updating it in real time.

Read the label inside each block for Age | Survival% (or N.E.D. if there aren’t enough samples yet); higher survival % suggests blocks of that age have historically lasted longer.

Use the right-side survival curves to gauge how probability decays with age for bull vs bear blocks, and align entries with the side showing stronger survival at current age.

Treat ▲ (bullish rejection) and ▼ (bearish rejection) as optional confluence when price tests a boundary and fails to break.

Turn on alerts for “Bullish Zone Created,” “Bearish Zone Created,” and rejection signals so you don’t need to watch constantly.

If your chart gets crowded, enable Prevent Overlap; tune Max Box Age to your timeframe; and adjust KM Training Window/Minimum Samples to trade off responsiveness vs stability.